Recovering from its 2022 default under an IMF programme, with a new political order and strategic weight in the Indian Ocean.
Sri Lanka defaulted on its external debt in 2022 and has since restructured under an IMF programme. The 2024 elections brought a new governing coalition with a strong mandate, and its handling of reform, taxation and the recovery will shape the investment climate for years.
We analyse the recovery and its politics, the restructuring of state enterprises, the competition between India, China and others over ports and infrastructure, and the opportunities in tourism, logistics and services.
The issues that move the risk picture.
- Reform and the IMF programmeRevenue measures, state enterprise reform and the politics of continued adjustment.
- Government policy directionHow the governing coalition balances its political base with investor expectations.
- Ports and strategic infrastructurePort, energy and infrastructure projects at the centre of Indian Ocean competition.
- Debt sustainabilityProgress after restructuring and the risk of renewed financing pressure.
- Climate and disaster riskExposure to cyclones, floods and the cost of recovery.
Typical client questions
A selection of the questions clients bring to us on Sri Lanka.
- How durable is Sri Lanka's recovery, and what could derail it?
- How is the government likely to treat foreign investors in strategic infrastructure?
- What are the main risks for a logistics or tourism investment over the next three years?
Discuss Sri Lanka with an analyst.
Book a free 30-minute briefing call. We will give you an initial view where we can, and a written scoping note within two business days.
Book a briefing call